Looking at the Field

Gov. Palin has said that she wants to assess the field prior to announcing if she will run for President.  So let's take a competitive look.

First in was Herman Cain, radio talk show host, once a GA senate candidate and former member of the Federal Reserve board.  A conservative, he was unable to win a senate primary in 2004.  As he has not held elective office, and has no voting record to evaluate, we will consider him a candidate in ambition only.  Although a relatively wealthy man, a retired Pizza chain CEO, he would be considered a member of the Country Class, not an establishment candidate.

Next to announce forming an exploratory committee was Newt Gingrich.  Then he announced that his decision to form the committee would be delayed. As of today we don't know where he stands as a candidate.  Acknowledged as one of the smartest Republicans, he has also done some dumb things in and out of office.  Most prominent of those, was making a global warming video with Nancy Pelosi and endorsing Dede Scozzafava, a liberal Republican,   for congress in NY.  He has a history of coming up with good ideas and also some bad ones.  His entry in the race would provide some interesting discussion points and would allow Gov. Palin to contrast her views with a "conservative" of the establishment.

Rick Santorum, former Senator from Pennsylvania, is thought to be also exploring a run for the White House.  A major problem for Sen. Santorum is his failure to be re-elected in his state.  Senators who lose their re-election bids are not generally seen as viable for higher office.  He is ultra-conservative on social issues. At this point he has gained no traction.

Michele Bachmann has let it be known that she will decide in June if she will run.  She is a second term Representative from Minnesota and very conservative.  She has been active in the TEA Party movement and expects their support.  We are not sure what she is doing.  Even much more senior members of the House have had little success in running for President, so most don't take her very seriously as a candidate.  She may be trying to improve her stature in Minnesota in hopes of running for senator, and may drop out after Sarah announces.  If she remains in the race, she, along with Cain, could  take votes from Palin among the farthest right of the party.

Tim Pawlenty is a fellow that few have bad things to say about.  He's been a decent governor in Minnesota but is a yawner as a public figure.  He appears serious about running for President and has a political autobiography out which is being promoted far in excess of the book's sales potential.  He may be running for VP as he has made very complimentary remarks about Gov. Palin.

Donald Trump has threatened to run for President.  He has the money but will he spend it?  He has made very strong remarks about trade with China and even asked President Obama to present his birth certificate.  He is also at the beginning of the new season of his TV show, so the interviews about running for President aren't doing him any harm.  Voters probably wouldn't elect a self-promoter like Trump and it's doubtful he would spend the money to find out.

Haley Barbour, governor of Mississippi, is exploring a run and he will fight the difficulty of being considered a regional candidate primarily because of his accent.  He is an establishment Republican, a former lobbyist, and a good governor.  He has a habit of opening his mouth and inserting his foot which will make for an interesting campaign.

There will be an establishment Moderate Republican candidate but at this point we don't know who that is.  Jon Huntsman, former governor of Utah and Obama appointee, probably will not be that candidate although he could fund his own campaign.  Mitch Daniels, governor of Indiana, doesn't appear to have a fire in the belly to enter the race.  Jeb Bush, of Florida has his eye on 2016 which means he has written off 2012 to Obama.  Mike Huckabee of Arkansas has done well at FoxNews and probably will not run.  Some polls show him leading, but he knows that when Palin enters the race he will bleed support.  He probably would not get the establishment support anyway.  That leaves Rudy Giuliani and the reliable old Mitt Romney, this time hobbled by his Romneycare.  Given that choice, the establishment will opt for Romney, Rudy being a little too much on the independent side for their liking.  Romney will be a tough sell to TEA Party Republicans.  His core values are muddled due to constant re-definition.  If Romney gets a significant challenge from another moderate, his chances diminish.  His best situation is a two person contest against Palin but his outlook there is not good based on the energy in the party being with the TEA party. 

So, as Palin looks at the field and assesses its weakness, is she prompted to jump in early?  Probably not.  She's probably safe to wait until at least late April to start her campaign.  She won't need an exploratory committee.